Manitoba Real Estate & Interest Rates in 2025

When I meet with clients—whether buyers, sellers, or investors—the same question keeps coming up: “What’s going on with interest rates, and how will that affect Manitoba’s housing market?”

In 2025, the Bank of Canada has already made several important moves. As a result, these changes are shaping affordability, prices, and buyer demand across the province. Below is a clear overview of what’s happening and why it matters.

What is the Central Lending Rate and Why It Matters

The central lending rate, also called the policy rate, is set by the Bank of Canada. This rate influences:

The prime rate, which affects variable-rate mortgages and credit lines.
Fixed mortgage rates, which follow bond yields and lender costs.
Borrowing costs for households, builders, and developers.

In other words, even a small rate change can impact what buyers qualify for, how quickly homes sell, and whether prices rise or fall.

Interest Rate Trends in 2025

After several years of elevated rates, the Bank of Canada has started cutting rates. As of September 2025, the overnight rate is 2.50%.

Furthermore, experts predict gradual easing through the remainder of the year. Variable mortgage rates in Manitoba are already in the mid-3% to low-4% range, depending on borrower profile.

However, fixed rates remain higher because they are tied to bond yields and market expectations.

How Lower Rates Are Affecting Manitoba’s Housing Market

1. Improved Affordability

Lower rates mean lower monthly payments. Consequently, many buyers who stepped back in 2022–2024 are now re-entering the market.

2. More Resale Activity

As refinancing and renewals become cheaper, homeowners are more confident to sell or upgrade. Meanwhile, active listings in Winnipeg remain below demand, which puts upward pressure on prices.

3. Detached Homes Leading Price Growth

Winnipeg’s average home price in August 2025 increased by 6% to 8% year-over-year, depending on the property type. According to Nesto.ca, the overall average for all home types rose about 6.2%, while the Winnipeg Regional Real Estate Board reports that residential detached homes specifically increased by 8%, reaching an average price of $450,596. Detached homes are driving much of this growth, as buyers move away from condos or higher-cost markets, and limited supply keeps prices elevated.

4. Ongoing Challenges for First-Time Buyers

Even with lower rates, affordability challenges remain:

Prices have already risen, so down payments still matter.
Renewals come in at higher nominal rates than previous years.
Many buyers remain cautious, opting for fixed-rate mortgages to avoid future increases.

5. Sales Velocity & Inventory

Lower rates encourage demand, but supply often lags. Winnipeg’s sales-to-new-listings ratio remains high. Additionally, new home construction faces labour and material cost pressures. As a result, price growth may continue if inventory doesn’t catch up.

What to Watch for in the Coming Months

Further Rate Cuts: Forecasts suggest more relief could come if inflation and economic growth align.
Mortgage Renewal Shock: Homeowners coming off ultra-low rates may face higher payments, potentially adding listings to the market.
Inventory Levels: If new builds and listings don’t keep up, price pressures will persist.
Tax Credits: Programs like Manitoba’s Homeowners Affordability Tax Credit provide some relief.
Population Growth: Migration and immigration continue to drive housing demand across the province.

Bottom Line

Interest rate cuts in 2025 are giving Manitoba buyers renewed purchasing power. Sellers are also seeing stronger demand, particularly for detached homes.

However, affordability challenges remain, especially for first-time buyers. Careful planning and understanding your financing options are more important than ever.

Thinking of buying or selling, or wondering how rates could impact you – feel free to contact me.

Note: article written with AI assistance and reviewed by someone very human. 🙂